Election prediction essay

In 2020, the Republican presidential nomination will not be worth having. It is by no means clear why anyone looking for relief and protection from ruling class rule would vote Republican. Judging from Republican leaders in Congress and from The Wall Street Journal , the GOP has only to present itself as the alternative to rule by Democrats and cite some well crafted, subtle differences in policy to reap the bountiful harvests of votes it has received in recent cycles. Besides, the Party is awash in money. In 2016, this line of thought produced $150 million to promote Jeb Bush’s primary presidential candidacy, which yielded a total of three delegates out of almost 2500. In 2020, the Party having proved that life under Republican majorities in both Houses and a Republican president is no less subject to ruling class outrages than it was under Democrats, this line of thinking is likely to yield even less. Hence, the only near-certainty about politics in 2020 is that the Republican Party’s presidential candidate will come in a distant third.

In retrospect, the polling techniques employed by the magazine were to blame. Although it had polled ten million individuals (of whom about million responded, an astronomical total for any opinion poll), [5] it had surveyed its own readers first, a group with disposable incomes well above the national average of the time, shown in part by their ability still to afford a magazine subscription during the depths of the Great Depression , and then two other readily available lists: that of registered automobile owners and that of telephone users, both of which were also wealthier than the average American at the time. Research published in 1972 and 1988 concluded that non-response bias was the primary source of this error, although their sampling frame was also quite different from the vast majority of voters.

Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary. She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected. That’s why she fights against gays getting married one moment, and the next she’s officiating a gay marriage. Young women are among her biggest detractors, which has to hurt considering it’s the sacrifices and the battles that Hillary and other women of her generation endured so that this younger generation would never have to be told by the Barbara Bushes of the world that they should just shut up and go bake some cookies. But the kids don’t like her, and not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her. No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8 th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm just isn’t there. And because this election is going to come down to just one thing — who drags the most people out of the house and gets them to the polls — Trump right now is in the catbird seat.

All the while, he and his family are personally profiting from the presidency in ways that haven’t been seen before in modern American history. He’s fired the FBI Director who was investigating his possible collusion with Russian interference in the 2016 election , the top ethics watchdog quit while saying that the US had become a laughingstock , and people like his son-in-law Jared Kushner are constantly revising their security and financial disclosure forms after several omissions . And that’s all to say nothing of Trump’s attacks on the free press and steady torrent of baldfaced lies.

Election prediction essay

election prediction essay

All the while, he and his family are personally profiting from the presidency in ways that haven’t been seen before in modern American history. He’s fired the FBI Director who was investigating his possible collusion with Russian interference in the 2016 election , the top ethics watchdog quit while saying that the US had become a laughingstock , and people like his son-in-law Jared Kushner are constantly revising their security and financial disclosure forms after several omissions . And that’s all to say nothing of Trump’s attacks on the free press and steady torrent of baldfaced lies.

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